SIR MODEL ON THE REVIEW IMPACT OF SOCIAL DISTANCING FOR COVID-19

Abstract

Pandemic COVID-19 is a contagious disease affecting more than 200 countries, territories, and regions. Nigeria is one of the countries that have immensely suffered from the outbreak. The North East Region of Nigeria is also prone to the disease. Until now, more than 23,000 confirmed cases have been recorded in the region. Since the onset of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, based on epidemiological modelling, researchers have used various models to review the impact of the epidemic and what would have done in some regions to reduce impact. This study aims to review the basic reproductive number  for COVID-19 in North East Nigeria, using the standard SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemic model. A system of nonlinear differential equations was formulated and solved numerically using excel. The reproductive numbers  was estimated by the method of fitting the curves between the actual daily data and numerical solution. for the analysis, data were taken for the duration of 165 days, from 24th of March when the first case was announced in the region to 18th October 2020, in a population of 26 million. It is concluded that the  value was fluctuating during the outbreak, and thus played a significant role in reducing and containing the spread of the disease.