PATTERNS OF POLITICAL PARTY DEFECTIONS IN NIGERIA: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF CAUSES, FREQUENCY, AND REGIONAL DYNAMICS

Abstract

Political party defections commonly termed “cross-carpeting” in Nigeria have become a recurring feature of the country’s democratic experience since the return to civilian rule in 1999. Persistent switching of allegiance by elected officials undermines ideological coherence, destabilizes legislative coalitions, and raises questions about the institutional strength of Nigeria’s multiparty system. This study provides a longitudinal analysis of political party defections in Nigeria, examining their causes, frequency, and regional dynamics over a twenty-four-year period. Employing a historical comparative research design, the study draws on official records of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), National Assembly proceedings, party membership registers, and major national newspapers. Data were coded by electoral cycle and geopolitical zone and analyzed using descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and qualitative content interpretation to capture both temporal and spatial patterns. Findings reveal that defections cluster around critical political moment’s especially party primaries and the months preceding general elections indicating strong electoral-cycle effects. Institutional factors such as constitutional loopholes, weak internal party democracy, and factional leadership crises emerge as primary drivers, reinforced by personal ambitions, patronage networks, and ethno-regional calculations. Regionally, the North-West and South-South zones record the highest rates of switching, reflecting local political cultures and shifting alliances. The study concludes that persistent defections weaken party system institutionalization, erode voter trust, and impede democratic consolidation. Strengthening internal party governance, clarifying constitutional provisions, and enforcing anti-defection laws are recommended to build stable, ideologically coherent parties capable of sustaining Nigeria’s democratic trajectory.